Commercial Aircraft Market on 20-Year Growth Spree, Says Rolls-Royce

Bangkok--Mar 10-- Rolls-Royce plc. Commercial air travel will grow by at least five percent each year over the next 20 years and by the year 2017 an estimated 34,800 new civil aircraft will have entered service, according to a new survey conducted by aerospace engine maker Rolls-Royce plc. This adds up to a total market of 83,000 aircraft engines, worth over $1,500 billion. "Long term growth in demand for aircraft will be strong, despite the impact of world economic cycles on the aerospace industry," says Peter Clogger, Rolls-Royce’s Regional Executive for Thailand, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. "As Rolls-Royce spans all commercial aircraft sectors, we are positioning ourselves to further strengthen our performance and increase market share." This is the first time that Rolls-Royce has combined its market survey activities into a single report, entitled Rolls-Royce Market Outlook Summary 1998-2017, which it is circulating to customers, investors, suppliers, analysts and the media. "There has been a particular effort to make this the first in a series of more user-friendly documents," says Mr. Clogger. "We intend in future to issue Market Outlook every year, on the eve of the Farnborough and Paris airshows." Widebody aircraft will take nearly 50 percent of the total commercial aircraft market by value, while narrowbody aircraft will account for nearly 30 percent and regional aircraft and corporate jets eight percent each, according to the survey. Of the 34,800 new commercial aircraft, 16,860 are major aircraft, including freighters. More than 8,000 new regional aircraft and a further 9,900 corporate jets will be required to satisfy particularly strong demand in these markets. Aircraft larger than the current Boeing 747-400 will be required to satisfy growth in demand on major long-haul routes and on the most dense intra-regional services. New aircraft such as the Airbus A3XX and bigger versions of the Boeing 747 are candidates to serve this market. The survey says the 300-380 seat Airbus A340 and Boeing 777 will be instrumental in developing new long-haul routes and in providing frequency growth on existing routes. Aircraft of this size, along with the Boeing 767 and Airbus A330, will also be used to increase capacity on transatlantic routes and to replace older widebodies. The market for widebody aircraft is over 19,000 engines in this period, worth some $173 billion. Mr. Clogger says that the Rolls-Royce Trent family of engines, introduced in 1997, is increasingly being used to power widebody aircraft, along with the longer established RB211-524. "The Trent 500, 700 and 800 -- plus the future 600 and 900 -- offer power for variants of all Boeing and Airbus aircraft with over 250 seats," he says. The narrowbody aircraft sector accounts for a market of 24,300 engines in the 20-year period covered by the survey, and is worth around $109 billion. Airline demand for increasingly cost-efficient operations and improved service frequency will sustain orders for existing narrowbody aircraft such as the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families, says the survey. Larger narrowbodies, including the Boeing 757-300, will be attractive for increasing capacity on hub networks, while new 100-seat aircraft such as the Boeing 717 will bring improved effectiveness to operations in core local markets and major airline feeder networks. In this sector, the largest narrowbody aircraft is the Boeing 757, powered by the RB211-535. For smaller narrowbodies the BMW Rolls-Royce BR715 powers the Boeing 717 and is offered for the new 85-130-seat aircraft. The survey says that 13,300 jet engines will be required to serve the rapidly developing regional aircraft market, with a further demand for 5,300 turboprop engines. New small jets are leading the growth in deliveries of regional aircraft. Key products are Embraer's 50-seat ERJ-145 and the new 35-seat ERJ-135, both powered by Rolls-Royce AE3007 engines. The value of the market for regional jet engines will be $28 billion. New corporate jet aircraft will require 20,800 engines, valued at $32 billion. Over 75 percent of these deliveries will be for small and medium corporate jets, with remaining deliveries being for medium-heavy and larger aircraft. The introduction of 19 new corporate jet aircraft types between 1995 and 2000 has largely been made possible by new engine types such as the BMW Rolls-Royce BR710, Rolls-Royce AE3007, and Williams-Rolls FJ44. These new aircraft will enable buyers to replace older aircraft or enter the market for the first time. End.

• ข่าวCommercial Aircraft
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