MasterCard today announced the results of its latest MasterIndex of
Consumer Confidence. The six-monthly survey shows Thailand (47.9) suffering
a significant decline in consumer sentiments from both six months and a year
ago.
Except for 4Q 2001, consumer confidence in Thailand is at its lowest
since the Asian Crisis of 1997/98. Its current MasterIndex of 47.9 shows that
Thai consumers are slightly pessimistic over the next six months, especially on
Quality of Life (39.2), Economy (39.5), and to a lesser degree, the Stock Market
(42.7) and Employment (44.0). Consumers are however, still fairly optimistic
on Regular Income (74.2).
“2005 has been a very tough year for Thailand, which was affected by
the tsunami, the bird flu, unrest in the south, higher interest rates and higher
world price of oil, and this is reflected in the low consumer confidence
reported,” observed Dr. Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, Economic Advisor to MasterCard
International in Asia/Pacific. But Dr. Hedrick-Wong pointed out that “the same
convergence of negative events is highly unlikely in 2006. The interest rate
cycle is expected to peak and Japan’s sustained recovery will see stronger
investment in Thailand. In fact, Thailand’s investment cycle may turn upward
again this year, which will go a long way to boost growth and consumption.
The weak consumer confidence in Thailand is likely to be a short term phenomenon.”
Across the region, the survey reveals a strong sense of consumer
optimism in key Asia/Pacific markets, despite the many existing and emerging
economic challenges. In particular, markets such as Vietnam (93.1), Hong Kong
(85.8) and China (82.3) are seeing record-high levels of optimism.
The latest MasterIndex survey was conducted from 15 October to 4
November 2005, and involved 5,404 consumers across 13 key Asia/Pacific markets.
Five variables were measured; employment, economy, regular income, stock market
and quality of life. MasterIndex respondents were asked about their sentiments
on these five variables for the next six months.
MASTERINDEX COUNTRY FINDINGS
TAIWAN (26.6 – Worst performing market)
Taiwan is the “worst performer” in this 4Q 2005 MasterIndex. Consumer
confidence is currently the fourth lowest out of the twenty-six measurements
taken since 1993. There has been widespread public dissatisfaction in Taiwan with
its government over its MRT scandal, high unemployment and the increasing
dependence on international trade to sustain its economy.
Very weak consumer sentiments on all five factors are evident:
Employment 18.8, Economy 25.2, Stock Market 28.1, Quality of Life 24.9 and
Regular Income 35.9.
VIETNAM (93.1 – Best performing market)
Vietnam continues to remain very highly optimistic as it was in all
preceding MasterIndex - Employment (95.4), Regular Income (95.4), Quality of
Life (94.3), Economy (91.7) and Stock Market (88.5). In fact, the current
MasterIndex is at a record high due largely to the increasing awareness and
knowledge of the Stock Market.
The current MasterIndex of 93.1 is marginally higher than six months
ago (92.1) and a year ago (90.8), as well as the two preceding periods, suggesting
consumer sentiments are at a record high.
More information on MasterIndex can be found at the website
www.mastercard-masterindex.com
About MasterCard International
MasterCard Incorporated is a leading global payments solutions company
that provides a broad variety of innovative services in support of our global
members’ credit, deposit access, electronic cash, business-to-business and related
payment programs. MasterCard, through its principal operating subsidiary,
MasterCard International Incorporated, manages a family of well-known, widely
accepted payment card brands including MasterCard, Maestro and Cirrus and serves
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The following Chart shows the performance of each market at different
key intervals and important turning points in the history of the Region’s
MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence.
The MasterIndex & The Region
Period Year Crisis HISTORICAL
Current Ago Ago Average AVERAGE
MARKETS 4Q 2005 2Q 2005 4Q 2004 4Q 97 - 4Q 98 MASTERINDEX
Australia 49.8 56.5 61.5 43 57.2
China 82.3 82.3 81.3 55.6 73.3
Hong Kong 85.8 85.5 79.2 16.9 50.6
Indonesia 39 70.8 94.7 27.2 68.7
Japan 63 45.4 37.7 5.4 25.2
Korea 47.5 54.2 29.6 26.1 53.3
Malaysia 68.7 61.4 78 40.9 75.4
New Zealand 42.5 52.5 68.6 38.5 60.1
Philippines 28.9 28.9 33.7 47.7 50
Singapore 74.8 69.7 58.7 34.4 64.5
Taiwan 26.6 38.6 48.2 45.1 50.2
Thailand 47.9 60.4 59.4 25.6 57.9
Vietnam 93.1 92.1 90.8 0.0* 91.4
The Region 57.7 61.4 63.2 34.7 59.8
Note: The Crisis period in the Chart above is based on the
reflection of the MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence results, which may or may
not coincide with actual chronology or the definitions of others.
Historical Average is the mean average of all MasterIndex scores up
through Period Ago but not including the Current Period.
* Ex-Vietnam as this market was not surveyed in 1997/98.
ContactsEileen Wee, MasterCard International(66) 2670 4088
[email protected] Wongwasin,124 Communications Plc
(66) 2662
[email protected] End.