Economic Trend in 2023" Consumption Mind in Thailand is Steady 'Key Findings from Macromill Weekly Index Asia

• Sentiments, Consumption intention etc. in Thailand is strong during the first half of 2023.

We'll look at the differences in current lifestyle value and behavior in each country and region. Chart 1 as shown below is a qualitative conclusion based on survey results, including the tendency and circumstances of each country and region in the past; it is not based solely on numbers.

When looking at the sentiments, consumption intention and consumer confidence in Thailand, the result is 'Good' except for the Price Consciousness. The overall results for other countries are 'Observing', except Indonesia.

• The tendency of Consumption intention of Thailand is 'rising'. But is still observed whether this will continue into the second half of 2023.

Looking at Consumption intention in Chart 2, since 2023 Thailand has been improving dramatically from the previous year. Though the overseas export value in Thailand is dropping, but with the recovery of foreign tourists and favorable domestic consumption, the consumption mind is gradually rising since early 2023, and consumer confidence is improving.

On the other hand, the export recovery which is similar to other countries (*1), and that recently Thailand's Bureau of Fiscal Policy in Ministry of Finance has made a downward adjustment for economic growth forecast for 2023, and Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has reduced the forecasted number of manufactured automobile for instance, the future prospect is not necessarily a promising circumstance - one can say that it is still being observed whether the improvement in consumer confidence will continue or not.

*1 Cited from Nisseikiso Research Institute, Thai Economy 'growth rate during January-March 2023 is increasing by 2.7% compared to the same period last year - business conditions improving due to tourism and consumption recovery.

• Consumption intention is favorable in Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan with declining consumer confidence in Vietnam and China than the previous year.

Finally, we'll conclude the tendency of each country and region based on survey results.

Thailand: Regarding the business condition, consumption intention is improving from last year and is favorable - but it is still being observed whether from now the consumer confidence will continue to improve or not.

Indonesia: Consumer confidence is better than last year, and from May 2023 onwards consumption intention continues to improve from the previous year.

Vietnam: Consumer confidence continues to drop lower than last year. This might have influenced consumption intention, which also slightly dropped from last year.

Japan: Though from the start of year 2023 it continues to hanging low, but by September 2023 the consumer confidence has improved than last year. As for consumption intention, the tendency is that it will remain the same as last year.

China: Consumer confidence remains hanging low, and recently has been declining to the same level as the past 2 years. Each type of economic indicator also shows a worsening tendency, calling for concerns of deflation.

Taiwan: On one hand, Consumer confidence and consumption intention for instance seems to continue to improve, while sentiment's tendency continues to decline. Though this survey does not cover the reason behind it, but it is considered that with the surrounding conditions and changes in political condition like presidential election in 2024, the rising uncertainty in the economy led by IT industry with continuous drop in exportation, or news report on social incidences (*2) in June 2023 etc. that occurs one after another has influenced the sentiment to decline.

*2 Mysterious death of a high-schooler who inherited 500-million NT dollar, the MeToo movement in Taiwan

South Korea: Though from the start of year 2023 it continues to hanging low, but the tendency is that recovery continues thanks to semiconductor export and recovering domestic demand. Consequently, though very slow, signs of improving consumption intention are seen.

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