Fitch Ratings has affirmed Export-Import Bank of Thailand's (EXIM) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB+' and National Long-Term Rating at 'AAA(tha)'. The Outlook is Stable. A full list of rating actions is below.
Key Rating Drivers
Ratings Aligned with Sovereign: EXIM's ratings are driven by its Government Support Rating (GSR), and the bank's Long-Term and Short-Term IDRs are equalised with those of the Thai sovereign (BBB+/Stable/F1). This reflects Fitch's assessment of a high likelihood of extraordinary state support for EXIM, given the bank's policy role, full state ownership and the implied creditor protection due to its legal status. Fitch has not assigned a Viability Rating, as a standalone assessment is less relevant due to EXIM's function as a policy bank.
Highest Rating on National Scale: The National Ratings take into account the bank's credit profile compared to other entities on the Thai national rating scale. EXIM's National Long-Term Rating of 'AAA(tha)' denotes the lowest expectation of default risk compared with other issuers in Thailand.
Important Policy Role: EXIM's longstanding policy role as the financial institution that finances and promotes Thailand's international trade and investment activities is established by its founding act. EXIM provides a range of financial and banking services to support Thai exporters and businesses, including loans and credit guarantees. It is also the only domestic policy bank offering insurance products related to international trade and investment.
State's Long-Term Ownership: Fitch considers the sovereign's full ownership of EXIM to be strategic and permanent. This is supported by EXIM's founding act, which mandates government oversight and control. The bank's board of directors includes representatives from several related government agencies, such as the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Commerce. The government's commitment to EXIM is also demonstrated by capital injections into the bank in 2021 and 2023.
State Support Capitalisation: EXIM's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) declined to 12.2% by end-March 2025 even with the recent capital injections, from 15.1% at end-December 2019, due to a large increase in loans. Nevertheless, the bank's growth has been in line with its policy objectives. The capital adequacy ratio remains well above the regulatory minimum of 8.5%, and Fitch expects further capital injections to occur, if required, over the medium term.
Government Linkages Underpin Funding: Fitch considers Thailand EXIM's refinancing risk to be low and expects the authorities to continue supporting the bank's funding to facilitate growth. The bank does not accept retail deposits and has a loan/deposit ratio of 234%, leading to high reliance on wholesale funding. EXIM's perceived status as a proxy for the sovereign enhances the bank's ability to raise funds and allows the bank to diversify its funding mix through debt issuance in local and foreign currencies.
In addition, its establishment act allows the bank to request the Ministry of Finance to guarantee debt issuance of up to 12 times equity. Guarantees have not been required to date due to the bank's sound financial position; however, this provision could mitigate funding risks.
Pressure Remains on Asset Quality: EXIM's clients include smaller companies with limited access to commercial funding, making them more vulnerable to changes in global economic conditions. EXIM's impaired loans remained high at 3.8% as of March 2025, reflecting persistent economic challenges, and we expect the bank will continue to face pressures on asset quality performance in 2025. However, asset quality risk is partially offset by a loan-loss reserve (LLR), which covered 258% of impaired loans at end-March 2025 and strengthens EXIM's capacity to absorb potential losses from asset quality deterioration.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
Any negative rating action on Thailand's sovereign rating would have a similar effect on EXIM's GSR and IDRs. However, this is unlikely to affect the National Ratings, as the bank should continue to be perceived as one of the strongest credits on the national rating scale, provided that the GSR remains equivalent to the Thai sovereign rating.
The bank's ratings could also face downward pressure if Fitch assesses a decline in the state's propensity to support the bank. This could be triggered by a significant reduction in government ownership, weaker state linkages, or if the bank ceases to be a policy bank. However, Fitch does not expect a reduction in the state's propensity to support in the medium term.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
An upgrade of the Thai sovereign's ratings is likely to lead to an upgrade of EXIM's GSR and IDRs, assuming other support assumptions remain unchanged. However, there is no upside to the National Ratings, which are already at the highest level on the scale.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
EXIM's US dollar notes are rated at the same level as its Long-Term IDR, and its Thai baht medium-term note programme and Thai baht notes are rated at the same level as its National Long-Term Rating, as they represent the bank's unsubordinated and unsecured obligations.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade:
EXIM's senior debt ratings would be downgraded if its IDR or National Long-Term Rating were to be downgraded.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade:
An upgrade of the Long-Term IDR would lead to similar rating action on the bank's senior debt ratings.
There is no upside to the National Long-Term Rating on EXIM's Thai baht medium-term note programme or its Thai baht bonds, as the rating is already at the highest level on the scale.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings
EXIM's ratings are linked to Thailand's sovereign ratings.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products#esg-relevance-scores
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