Gartner Forecasts 116 Million Electric Vehicles Will Be on the Road in 2026

Expert Take:

"Despite the U.S. government introducing tariffs on vehicle imports and many governments removing the subsidies and incentives for purchasing EVs, the number of EVs on the road is forecast to increase 30% in 2026," said Jonathan Davenport, Sr Director Analyst at Gartner. "In 2026, China is projected to account for 61% of total EV installed base, and global ownership of plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) is expected to rise 32% year-over-year as customers value the reassurance of a back-up petrol engine for use, should they need it."

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are forecast to continue to account for well over half of EV installed base, but there is an increasing proportion of customers choosing PHEVs.

Electric Vehicle Installed Base by Vehicle Type, Worldwide, 2025-2026 (Single Units)

• Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV): 2025 Installed Base = 59,480,370 / 2026 Installed Base = 76,344,452
• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV): 2025 Installed Base = 30,074,582 / 2026 Installed Base = 39,835,111
• Total: 2025 Installed Base = 89,554,951 / 2026 Installed Base = 116,179,563

Additional information from the forecast report:

• Regional Dynamics: Demand for EVs has shifted forward in China since the previous forecast update, with high levels of competition bringing down prices from domestic vendors and consequently increasing 2026 demand from 13.4 million shipments to 16.5 million. This is also combined with plans for additional investments in EV-charging infrastructure. However, the government has intervened to reduce the level of discounting by manufacturers, and it is scaling down its subsidies. Meanwhile, demand in the U.S. market has reduced as the government has introduced tariffs on vehicle imports and removed the subsidies and incentives for purchasing EVs.
• Technology Mix: Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) continue to account for well over half of all EV sales, but Gartner's forecast for 2026 has been revised down from 77% to 63%, as the adoption of BEVs has been slower than expected. Instead, we've seen an increasing proportion of customers choosing plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) — valuing the reassurance of a back-up petrol engine for use, should they need it. In response to this dynamic, leading manufacturers of EVs, like BYD, have focused their offerings on selling PHEV models. Another small but growing sub-category of PHEVs is vehicles that have a petrol engine that powers a generator to charge the battery — these range extender vehicles, only have an electric powertrain — delivering a smoother and more consistent electric driving experience.
• Regulatory Drivers: Automakers are developing EVs mainly in response to regulatory pressure from governments concerned about both air quality and climate change, rather than direct consumer demand. Many governments have already signalled that they will phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by not approving new vehicles with that powertrain type. The objective behind this decision is to reduce particulate matter (PM) and CO2 emissions from vehicles. PM emissions from ICE vehicles are perceived as a significant contributor to both air quality and climate change.

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