InnovestX Sees Global Economy Facing Three Gravity Forces but New Growth Drivers Emerging; Expects U-Shaped Recovery and Highlights Global Investment Access through 85 DR23 Securities

Mr.Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Investment Strategy & Research at InnovestX, said that the global economy is currently navigating through a critical transition period between downside pressures and emerging growth opportunities.

"Global markets continue to face three major gravity forces: energy-driven inflation, elevated government bond yields, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy. At the same time, we are seeing three important growth drivers gaining momentum, namely AI-related investment, easing geopolitical tensions, and large-scale fiscal stimulus measures across major economies. These factors are expected to provide meaningful support for global growth and investment opportunities in the periods ahead," he said.

Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research, stated: "Our team expects the global economy to follow a U-shaped recovery. Activity may soften in the second and third quarters amid tighter financial conditions worldwide, weakening European manufacturing, declining U.S. consumer confidence, and K-shaped growth in China—where manufacturing and exports remain solid but domestic spending stays subdued—before gradually recovering in the fourth quarter, supported by technology investment and fiscal stimulus measures across several economies.

For Thailand, we have raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.6%, supported by private investment, the digital and electronics industries, AI infrastructure, and government stimulus measures. That said, we will be monitoring closely the progress of these measures, as well as the momentum of AI-related investment and the U.S. Section 301 measures."

Mr.Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, noted that while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire alongside the AI investment supercycle and positive sentiment surrounding the November 2026 US elections should act as structural tailwinds and limit downside risk, significant headwinds remain. The market faces renewed downward pressure driven by an intensifying El Ni?o phenomenon, the prospect of higher US import tariffs, and a hawkish pivot from global central banks as they tighten monetary policy to combat inflation. Consequently, we anticipate a market drawdown in 3Q26, followed by a structural rebound in 4Q26."

"Despite short-term uncertainty, we continue to advocate a 'Stay Invested, Stay Selective' strategy. Investors should focus on companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and clear earnings visibility. We have raised our 2026 SET Index target range to 1,550-1,600, reflecting stronger economic momentum and improved earnings prospects. Our top picks for 3Q26 are CENTEL, CPN, GULF, HANA, and WHA."

Beyond domestic opportunities, InnovestX believes global diversification will play an increasingly important role in portfolio construction.

Mr.Saran Potewiratananond, Head of Proprietary Trading, said that DR23 has experienced significant growth within its first year.

"Within just one year, DR23 has expanded to 85 underlying securities covering four countries and six major global exchanges, including the United States, Hong Kong, China, and Japan. This reflects growing demand among investors for convenient access to global investment opportunities through the Stock Exchange of Thailand."

Today, DR23 covers a wide range of global investment themes, including AI and semiconductors, robotics, digital platforms, healthcare, energy, dividend strategies, and leading global ETFs. DR23 enables investors to access world-class companies and long-term structural growth opportunities using Thai baht, through their existing local securities accounts.

As diversification becomes increasingly important in today's investment environment, DR23 serves as an efficient gateway to global opportunities under the concept of 'Making Global Investing Easy with DR23'."

InnovestX believes that maintaining a diversified portfolio, focusing on quality assets, and gaining exposure to long-term global megatrends will remain key strategies for navigating uncertainty and capturing sustainable investment opportunities in the years ahead.

INVX app, the investment platform under SCBX Group, is committed to empowering investors with the tools, insights, and opportunities they need to achieve their financial goals. Guided by the belief: "Your Future, Empowered." INVX helps investors navigate global markets with confidence. Investors can stay informed with market insights, investment perspectives, and comprehensive research at www.innovestx.co.th/cafeinvest and https://dr23.innovestx.co.th/dr, as well as via Facebook and LINE Official: @InnovestX.

Investors should study product characteristics, return conditions, and risks before making investment decisions. DR investments involve risks including fluctuations in the prices of underlying foreign securities, exchange rate risk, issuer risk, and liquidity risk.

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